Studies have shown that when large numbers of people buy and sell based on their predictions of events – presidential elections, movie box-office receipts, sporting events, or the future price of crude oil (Atlantic, Oct. 2005 at 32 for oil futures), their collective intelligence with their money on the line proves to be more astute than that of individual prognosticators.
Why can’t there be an online market based on the outcome of significant lawsuits, cases where many people have a stake (perhaps the Grokster case or the Vioxx trials) and can buy and sell based on their own knowledge and analysis?